Despite reaching the illustrious 8-8 mark last week, I remain 14-17 on the season. I'm slowly but surely starting to feel like Dick Jauron. And it doesn't feel good...here's hoping for a big week so I can un-Dick myself. That sounds completely awful.
WEEK 3 PICKS:
GIANTS (-6.5) over Bucs
Titans (+2.5) over JETS
TEXANS (-4) over Jaguars
EAGLES (-9) over Chiefs
RAVENS (-13.5) over Browns
Redskins (-6.5) over LIONS
Packers (-6.5) over RAMS
49ers (+7) over VIKINGS
PATRIOTS (-4) over Falcons
SEAHAWKS (+2) over Bears
Saints (-6) over BILLS
CHARGERS (-6) over Dolphins
BENGALS (+4) over Steelers
RAIDERS (+1.5) over Broncos
CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Panthers (+9) over COWBOYS
Over/Under: References to Size of Jerry-Tron: 5.5
I'm taking the over. The waaaay over.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Week 2 Picks
After a humiliating 6-9 showing in Week 1, its time to bounce back and stop treading on these sub .500 waters. Lets see what happens here...
WEEK 2 PICKS:
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland
Houston (+7) over TENNESSEE
New England (-3.5) over NEW YORK
GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati
DETROIT (+10) over Minnesota
New Orleans (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA (-6) over Carolina
WASHINGTON (-9.5) over St. Louis
Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Seattle
BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay
Cleveland (+3) over DENVER
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Baltimore
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO
New York (+3) over DALLAS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI
WEEK 2 PICKS:
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland
Houston (+7) over TENNESSEE
New England (-3.5) over NEW YORK
GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati
DETROIT (+10) over Minnesota
New Orleans (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA (-6) over Carolina
WASHINGTON (-9.5) over St. Louis
Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Seattle
BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay
Cleveland (+3) over DENVER
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Baltimore
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO
New York (+3) over DALLAS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Week One Picks
They may not be Goldielocks...But here are my Picks for Week 1.
TEXANS (-4) over Jets
GIANTS (-6.5) over Skins
FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
RAVENS (-13) over Chiefs
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Eagles
BENGALS (-4.5) over Broncos
Vikings (-4) over BROWNS
COLTS (-7) over Jags
SAINTS (-13.5) over Lions
Cowboys (-5.5) over BUCS
CARDS (-6) over 49ERS
Rams (-8) over SEAHAWKS
PACKERS (-4) over Bears
PATS (-10.5) over Bills
Chargers (-9.5) over RAIDERS
TEXANS (-4) over Jets
GIANTS (-6.5) over Skins
FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
RAVENS (-13) over Chiefs
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Eagles
BENGALS (-4.5) over Broncos
Vikings (-4) over BROWNS
COLTS (-7) over Jags
SAINTS (-13.5) over Lions
Cowboys (-5.5) over BUCS
CARDS (-6) over 49ERS
Rams (-8) over SEAHAWKS
PACKERS (-4) over Bears
PATS (-10.5) over Bills
Chargers (-9.5) over RAIDERS
Saturday, September 12, 2009
NFC PREVIEW (abridged)
Sorry devoted fan, but this one is going to be quick and dirty. The life of a blogger/radio host never stops, so unfortunately I don't have time to type out long winded and error-filled explanations for my probably incorrect predictions. I guess you'll just have to get by.
NFC EAST:
1. NEW YORK GIANTS
Take away any teams number 1 wideout late in the year and they are going to struggle. Doesn't matter if its Plaxico Burress, Larry Fitzgerald or Phil McConkey. Eli is going to elevate his WRs, the offensive line is the best in football, and the running game is elite...Ahmad Bradshaw is a better back than Derrick Ward. They have a second unit defensive line that would start on plenty of NFL teams. They may not have the best record, but this is the best team in football.
PREDICTION:
12-4
2. DALLAS COWBOYS
I was all over this team last for a lack of heart and fire. The window on the Romo/Phillips era is closing and I think the team is going to respond well. The defense should remain status quo but I feel the offense is going to really boom. With no T.O. or Jessica Simpson in his ear, Tony Romo will deliver his best season as a pro. Felix Jones' return means less carries for Marion Barber, but a far more explosive run game. You may not believe in Roy E. Williams as a primary wideout, but with Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, Romo is going to have a unique blend of targets. Good Ol' Wade gets one more shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
PREDICTION:
11-5
3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Everyone and their grandmother is all over this team. I am not (I don't about my Grammie though). Their offense is chock full of weapons, but Westbrook can't stay on the field, Jeremy Maclin seemed to get lost at times in the preseason, and I don't know what to expect from Shady McCoy. The line will be able to keep Donovan McNabb upright, but the looming presence of Mike Vick and the fans (stupid) propensity to turn on him at the drop of a can of Chunky soup is going to mess with his head. The defense lacks the leadership its had over the past years with B-Dawk in Denver and the tragic loss of Jim Johnson. I'm not drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid.
PREDICTION:
9-7
4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
Ahh the Skins. I love what they did with their defense (adding Fat Albert and Brian Orakpo) and I'm not as down on Jason Campbell as everyone seems to be. Still, I don't believe Goofy Jim and his Fun Bunch will be a real factor in the NFC East. But THREE CHEERS FOR THEM FOR TRYING! HIP HIP HOORAY!
PREDICTION:
7-9
NFC NORTH
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS:
I AM drinking this Kool-Aid. I love Aaron Rodgers and he has quite the targets to throw to. I'm not a big fan of Ryan Grant, but with the nagging hamstring injury healed, added reliance on the passing game, and intriguing spell options (Brandon Jackson/Kregg Lumpkin), he should be alright. The real story is the defense. Bringing in Dom Capers to transition to the 3-4 was a brilliant move. The team seemed to adjust seamlessly in the offseason. The big reason the secondary was so awful last year was a lack of pressure by the front seven. If the 3-4 move helps that wound, Charlie Woodson and Al Harris will return to form. The offense is going to score a lot and the defense is going to be vastly improved. If Rodgers can lead some game-winning drives this year, this team is scary.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. CHICAGO BEARS:
Jay Cutler's got a big mouth, but a bigger arm. The Windy City's favorite diabetic is going to help this offense immensely. The team will be able to lighten impressive rookie Matt Forte's load, which lowers the BUST risk on him quite a bit. The receivers may not look like much right now, but keep an eye on Cutler's old Vandy teammate Earl Bennett...plus safety blankets like the aforementioned Forte and emerging star Greg Olsen will make Cutler's life easier. The defense may not be like the Bears of old, but with a high powered for the first time in oh...ever, Da Bears are looking like a playoff team.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
The elephant in the room here is Brett Favre (i feel that's been said many, many times over the past few years). Its going to be surreal to see him in that lovely purple hue of the Vikings, but if its the healthy, motivated Favre Jets fans fell in love with, I think Minnesota fans will adjust just fine. The defense is tough and they have the best player in football in Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately for Vikes fans, Big Brett is already making excuses about his health before even taking a regular season snap. Except a Jekyll and Hyde season from Mr. Jekyll and Hyde himself.
PREDICTION: 10-6
4. DETROIT LIONS:
Love what they've done with the place. There's just so much unproven product here that they are nearly impossible to handicap. I like Stafford, love Megatron, and think Brandon Pettigrew is a dark horse ROTY candidate. Defensively, they added some talent with Julian Peterson and 2nd round steal Louis Delmas. Al Harris thinks they can win 8...Al's got his dreads tied too tight, but an improvement will be infinitely better than last season. And that's not hyperbole. Win 1 game, and its a mathematically infinite improvement.
PREDICTION: 3-13
NFC SOUTH:
1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
The addition of Gregg Williams is going to work wonders for this defense. They still ain't the '85 Bears, but he will dial up aggressive and exotic defenses to help hide the fact that they don't have the greatest personnel. The offense is going to be scary good...Drew Brees is turning into Dan Fouts 2.0, with Sean Payton filling the Don Coryell role nicely. I don't buy the defense as a Super Bowl contending one, but I expect the Saints to improve enough on that side of the ball to win the division.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. CAROLINA PANTHERS:
If this team had a man at QB, they'd be a Super Bowl contender. Great coaching, tough defense, excellent ground game, and a playmaker like Steve Smith running downfield. But the curious decision to extend the contract of noted bedwetter Jake Delhomme blows my mind and blows their shot at true contention.
PREDICTION: 9-7
3. ATLANTA FALCONS:
This is not any kind of indictment on Matty Ice (who I love...great poise, great arm, better nickname), but moreso on those around him. The passing game will be improved with the addition of Tony Gonzalez to go with Roddy White, but I expect a big decline from Mike Turner. A ton of carries last year may lead to some growing pains...he reminds me very much of former Falcs back (and dancer extraordinaire) Jamal Anderson. Outta nowhere huge year before settling back into relative "OK"-ness. Defensively, they are just too soft. I think this team is going in the right direction for the future, but they are about to hit a speed bump.
PREDICTION: 7-9
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
I know it won't happen, but I went through their schedule and couldn't find one victory. This team is going to be tragic. No one is even acknowledging the fact that Josh Freeman was taken in the first round. The story of Cadillac Williams' return is nice, but other than that. Yikes.
PREDICTION:
0-16 (I know it won't happen. But I'm illustrating a point here.)
NFC WEST:
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS:
Jeez! Have we ever seen a Super Bowl runner up more universally detested by the general public? The offense will continue to be high-powered and whether you like Beanie Wells or not, he's a better option than the Edge James we saw last year and former Richmond Spider Timmy Hightower. Ken Whisenhunt is going to try to lean more on the ground game, in hopes of keeping Kurt Warner from burning out. The defensive plain isn't good, but neither is any team in this division (yes, even my Seahawks.) There's too much talent here for a losing season, provided Kurt stays upright for 16 games.
PREDICTION: 10-6
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
I appreciate all of you folks picking them to the playoffs. Really, I do. Its sweet. Fact of the matter is...it probably won't happen. The Hassel-Back (clever) looks to be 100%, but one hit is all it will take for "The Troubles" to start again. With Walter Jones banged up and the rest of the line in a flux, that one hit is a-coming. Defensively, its hard not to like their LB corps. All talented, all under 26. Aside from that though, things aren't looking too hot. Marcus Trufant is starting the season on the PUP list and no other corner has really stepped up. Lawyer Milloy was added to bolster the safety corp, so there that is. The defensive line has nice young players (Brandon Mebane, Larry Jackson), but also some veterans who are either injury-prone or underachievers (Pat Kearney and Corey Redding respectively). I love their WRs this year...but my goodness does this run game stink. I'll tell you...if Greg Knapp gets them near the top of the league in rushing, bronze him and send him to Canton. Julius Jones might be the worst feature back in the league, Edge James' best days are behind him, and Justin Forsett is an unproven commodity. The 'Hawks are trending upwards, but don't shoot too high with them.
PREDICTION:
8-8
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:
This team is a QB away. I like Mike Singletary's passion (and mooning abilities), Frank Gore and Glenn Coffee will form a nice RB1/RB2 combo, and if and when Michael Crabtree signs, he's going to be a stud WR in this league. On the other side, they have the best MLB in football (P-Willy) and are starting to surround him with capable help. Their QB situation is a mess though. Shaun Hill has the highest win percentage of any starting QB in the NFC, but you can shove that. Alex Smith is a bigger bust than Lendale's. Had this team gotten Kurt Warner, they and the Cards might have flip flopped spots. Keep your eye on them, but until they get a capable signal-caller, they aren't a real threat.
PREDICTION:
8-8
4. ST. LOUIS RAMS:
Ugh. 5 wins in the last 2 years. That's all you need to know. Marc Bulger looked terrible last year and the offensive line only got worse...so expect plenty of sacks, fumbles, and picks from Mr. Bulger. Steven Jackson seems poised for a bounce back year however, so they might not have to rely on Marcy Marc too much. Defensively, they have been a mess for a looong time, but new coach Steve Spaganulo aims to change that. They won't be good, but they'll nearly match their win total from the last two years combined.
PREDICTION:
4-12
PLAYOFFS:
3. GREEN BAY over 6. CHICAGO
5. DALLAS over 4. ARIZONA
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
3. GREEN BAY over 2. NEW ORLEANS
1. NEW YORK over 5. DALLAS
NFC TITLE GAME
1. NEW YORK over 3. GREEN BAY
SUPERBOWL:
NEW YORK over NEW ENGLAND
AWARDS:
MVP: Tom Brady, QB, New England
OPOTY: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
DPOTY: DeMeco Ryans, MLB, Houston
OROTY: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit
DROTY: Aaron Curry, OLB, Seattle
COTY: Mike McCarthy, Green Bay
There you have it folks. For the first time in about 24 years, I didn't pick San Diego/Seattle. That's a big step for me. Enjoy the football and don't forget about The Shore Sports Report, every M-F from 3-6pm on Fox Sports 1310/WOBM AM 1160.
NFC EAST:
1. NEW YORK GIANTS
Take away any teams number 1 wideout late in the year and they are going to struggle. Doesn't matter if its Plaxico Burress, Larry Fitzgerald or Phil McConkey. Eli is going to elevate his WRs, the offensive line is the best in football, and the running game is elite...Ahmad Bradshaw is a better back than Derrick Ward. They have a second unit defensive line that would start on plenty of NFL teams. They may not have the best record, but this is the best team in football.
PREDICTION:
12-4
2. DALLAS COWBOYS
I was all over this team last for a lack of heart and fire. The window on the Romo/Phillips era is closing and I think the team is going to respond well. The defense should remain status quo but I feel the offense is going to really boom. With no T.O. or Jessica Simpson in his ear, Tony Romo will deliver his best season as a pro. Felix Jones' return means less carries for Marion Barber, but a far more explosive run game. You may not believe in Roy E. Williams as a primary wideout, but with Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, Romo is going to have a unique blend of targets. Good Ol' Wade gets one more shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
PREDICTION:
11-5
3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Everyone and their grandmother is all over this team. I am not (I don't about my Grammie though). Their offense is chock full of weapons, but Westbrook can't stay on the field, Jeremy Maclin seemed to get lost at times in the preseason, and I don't know what to expect from Shady McCoy. The line will be able to keep Donovan McNabb upright, but the looming presence of Mike Vick and the fans (stupid) propensity to turn on him at the drop of a can of Chunky soup is going to mess with his head. The defense lacks the leadership its had over the past years with B-Dawk in Denver and the tragic loss of Jim Johnson. I'm not drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid.
PREDICTION:
9-7
4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
Ahh the Skins. I love what they did with their defense (adding Fat Albert and Brian Orakpo) and I'm not as down on Jason Campbell as everyone seems to be. Still, I don't believe Goofy Jim and his Fun Bunch will be a real factor in the NFC East. But THREE CHEERS FOR THEM FOR TRYING! HIP HIP HOORAY!
PREDICTION:
7-9
NFC NORTH
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS:
I AM drinking this Kool-Aid. I love Aaron Rodgers and he has quite the targets to throw to. I'm not a big fan of Ryan Grant, but with the nagging hamstring injury healed, added reliance on the passing game, and intriguing spell options (Brandon Jackson/Kregg Lumpkin), he should be alright. The real story is the defense. Bringing in Dom Capers to transition to the 3-4 was a brilliant move. The team seemed to adjust seamlessly in the offseason. The big reason the secondary was so awful last year was a lack of pressure by the front seven. If the 3-4 move helps that wound, Charlie Woodson and Al Harris will return to form. The offense is going to score a lot and the defense is going to be vastly improved. If Rodgers can lead some game-winning drives this year, this team is scary.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. CHICAGO BEARS:
Jay Cutler's got a big mouth, but a bigger arm. The Windy City's favorite diabetic is going to help this offense immensely. The team will be able to lighten impressive rookie Matt Forte's load, which lowers the BUST risk on him quite a bit. The receivers may not look like much right now, but keep an eye on Cutler's old Vandy teammate Earl Bennett...plus safety blankets like the aforementioned Forte and emerging star Greg Olsen will make Cutler's life easier. The defense may not be like the Bears of old, but with a high powered for the first time in oh...ever, Da Bears are looking like a playoff team.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
The elephant in the room here is Brett Favre (i feel that's been said many, many times over the past few years). Its going to be surreal to see him in that lovely purple hue of the Vikings, but if its the healthy, motivated Favre Jets fans fell in love with, I think Minnesota fans will adjust just fine. The defense is tough and they have the best player in football in Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately for Vikes fans, Big Brett is already making excuses about his health before even taking a regular season snap. Except a Jekyll and Hyde season from Mr. Jekyll and Hyde himself.
PREDICTION: 10-6
4. DETROIT LIONS:
Love what they've done with the place. There's just so much unproven product here that they are nearly impossible to handicap. I like Stafford, love Megatron, and think Brandon Pettigrew is a dark horse ROTY candidate. Defensively, they added some talent with Julian Peterson and 2nd round steal Louis Delmas. Al Harris thinks they can win 8...Al's got his dreads tied too tight, but an improvement will be infinitely better than last season. And that's not hyperbole. Win 1 game, and its a mathematically infinite improvement.
PREDICTION: 3-13
NFC SOUTH:
1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
The addition of Gregg Williams is going to work wonders for this defense. They still ain't the '85 Bears, but he will dial up aggressive and exotic defenses to help hide the fact that they don't have the greatest personnel. The offense is going to be scary good...Drew Brees is turning into Dan Fouts 2.0, with Sean Payton filling the Don Coryell role nicely. I don't buy the defense as a Super Bowl contending one, but I expect the Saints to improve enough on that side of the ball to win the division.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. CAROLINA PANTHERS:
If this team had a man at QB, they'd be a Super Bowl contender. Great coaching, tough defense, excellent ground game, and a playmaker like Steve Smith running downfield. But the curious decision to extend the contract of noted bedwetter Jake Delhomme blows my mind and blows their shot at true contention.
PREDICTION: 9-7
3. ATLANTA FALCONS:
This is not any kind of indictment on Matty Ice (who I love...great poise, great arm, better nickname), but moreso on those around him. The passing game will be improved with the addition of Tony Gonzalez to go with Roddy White, but I expect a big decline from Mike Turner. A ton of carries last year may lead to some growing pains...he reminds me very much of former Falcs back (and dancer extraordinaire) Jamal Anderson. Outta nowhere huge year before settling back into relative "OK"-ness. Defensively, they are just too soft. I think this team is going in the right direction for the future, but they are about to hit a speed bump.
PREDICTION: 7-9
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
I know it won't happen, but I went through their schedule and couldn't find one victory. This team is going to be tragic. No one is even acknowledging the fact that Josh Freeman was taken in the first round. The story of Cadillac Williams' return is nice, but other than that. Yikes.
PREDICTION:
0-16 (I know it won't happen. But I'm illustrating a point here.)
NFC WEST:
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS:
Jeez! Have we ever seen a Super Bowl runner up more universally detested by the general public? The offense will continue to be high-powered and whether you like Beanie Wells or not, he's a better option than the Edge James we saw last year and former Richmond Spider Timmy Hightower. Ken Whisenhunt is going to try to lean more on the ground game, in hopes of keeping Kurt Warner from burning out. The defensive plain isn't good, but neither is any team in this division (yes, even my Seahawks.) There's too much talent here for a losing season, provided Kurt stays upright for 16 games.
PREDICTION: 10-6
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
I appreciate all of you folks picking them to the playoffs. Really, I do. Its sweet. Fact of the matter is...it probably won't happen. The Hassel-Back (clever) looks to be 100%, but one hit is all it will take for "The Troubles" to start again. With Walter Jones banged up and the rest of the line in a flux, that one hit is a-coming. Defensively, its hard not to like their LB corps. All talented, all under 26. Aside from that though, things aren't looking too hot. Marcus Trufant is starting the season on the PUP list and no other corner has really stepped up. Lawyer Milloy was added to bolster the safety corp, so there that is. The defensive line has nice young players (Brandon Mebane, Larry Jackson), but also some veterans who are either injury-prone or underachievers (Pat Kearney and Corey Redding respectively). I love their WRs this year...but my goodness does this run game stink. I'll tell you...if Greg Knapp gets them near the top of the league in rushing, bronze him and send him to Canton. Julius Jones might be the worst feature back in the league, Edge James' best days are behind him, and Justin Forsett is an unproven commodity. The 'Hawks are trending upwards, but don't shoot too high with them.
PREDICTION:
8-8
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:
This team is a QB away. I like Mike Singletary's passion (and mooning abilities), Frank Gore and Glenn Coffee will form a nice RB1/RB2 combo, and if and when Michael Crabtree signs, he's going to be a stud WR in this league. On the other side, they have the best MLB in football (P-Willy) and are starting to surround him with capable help. Their QB situation is a mess though. Shaun Hill has the highest win percentage of any starting QB in the NFC, but you can shove that. Alex Smith is a bigger bust than Lendale's. Had this team gotten Kurt Warner, they and the Cards might have flip flopped spots. Keep your eye on them, but until they get a capable signal-caller, they aren't a real threat.
PREDICTION:
8-8
4. ST. LOUIS RAMS:
Ugh. 5 wins in the last 2 years. That's all you need to know. Marc Bulger looked terrible last year and the offensive line only got worse...so expect plenty of sacks, fumbles, and picks from Mr. Bulger. Steven Jackson seems poised for a bounce back year however, so they might not have to rely on Marcy Marc too much. Defensively, they have been a mess for a looong time, but new coach Steve Spaganulo aims to change that. They won't be good, but they'll nearly match their win total from the last two years combined.
PREDICTION:
4-12
PLAYOFFS:
3. GREEN BAY over 6. CHICAGO
5. DALLAS over 4. ARIZONA
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
3. GREEN BAY over 2. NEW ORLEANS
1. NEW YORK over 5. DALLAS
NFC TITLE GAME
1. NEW YORK over 3. GREEN BAY
SUPERBOWL:
NEW YORK over NEW ENGLAND
AWARDS:
MVP: Tom Brady, QB, New England
OPOTY: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
DPOTY: DeMeco Ryans, MLB, Houston
OROTY: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit
DROTY: Aaron Curry, OLB, Seattle
COTY: Mike McCarthy, Green Bay
There you have it folks. For the first time in about 24 years, I didn't pick San Diego/Seattle. That's a big step for me. Enjoy the football and don't forget about The Shore Sports Report, every M-F from 3-6pm on Fox Sports 1310/WOBM AM 1160.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
NFL Preview Blowout! Everything Must Go! PART 1
Everyone has that one thing that, in their mind, officially kicks off a certain time of year. The first time I hear "Feliz Navidad", its Christmas. The first time my father waxes melancholic about chocolate crosses, its Easter. The first time my Grammie calls my mother to review the pie list, its Thanksgiving (this also applies to the second time she calls, and the third, and the fourth, all separated by about 35 seconds). Tonight, I heard yet another one of those sounds that warms my heart...
That's right folks...announcers have referred to Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger as if he was an old drinking buddy or the titular rat of Michael Jackson ballad. "BEN" has taken the field...its football time.
Before we get into the full scale preview (and believe me...WE WILL.), here's a few quick hits on tonight's game.
-Roethlisberger is the shiftiest fat guy since Ernst Blofeld.
-I can't decide what's worse...The run game of the Steelers or the pass defense of the Titans.
-Hines Ward can't have in-between emotions. He's either smiling or crying. There is no middle ground with this man.
-Pittsburgh offensive line is going to be an issue. I, of course, said the same thing last year. So what do I know.
-The final score of the first NFL game of Joe and I's professional broadcasting career? 13 10. Coincidence? I think not.
With five quick hits, I have given you folks more from this game than Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall gave their fantasy owners combined, so I feel I've done my due diligence. Now its time to give you what you came for. I sense that look in your eye. You pretend you want to read about football. But you don't. You want a smoldering picture of the sexiest signal caller in New York football history. Don't lie. Its what you want. What you crave. What you desire. What you need. And who I am to deny you that?
My. Oh. My.
Goodness gracious. I am comfortably heterosexual but there is no denying the magnetism in that photo. But collect yourself, clean the fog off your computer screen and relax. Its business time.
MIKE KRENEK'S 2009 NFL PREVIEW PART I (The AFC Edition)
aka Where to Turn When You've Read ESPN, SI, Fox Sports and The Shore Sports Scoop and decided they just weren't inaccurate enough.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
I know about Brady's knee injury. I know about the losses of key defensive components. I know they have running backs who are far more fun to talk about then to actually watch (Try saying BenJarvusGreenEllis three times fast). But I also know that Bill Belichick is on a mission. And so is Mr. Brady. When those two guys want something, they usually get it. I'd question any other team's ability to bounce back from such a big shift on the defensive side of the ball, but I respect the Man behind the Curtain far too much. This team is going to score a zillion points and while their defense will be nowhere near the league's best, the young guard (Jerrod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather and rookies Patrick Chung and Ron Brace) will blend well with the older guys (Ty Warren, Adalius Thomas, Shawn Springs) and do just enough on the defensive side of the ball. A big key to their defensive success however, will be Vince Wilfork. With Richard Seymour out of the picture, the big fella has to be the glue that keeps this thing together. Couple that with the fact that he's due for a big money contract in 2010, and you've got one hungry 300 pounder. Although I imagine a man of his proportions is oft hungry.
PREDICTION: 13-3
2. NEW YORK JETS:
Ah the Jets. Its been quite the rocky ride over the last few seasons for fans of Gang Green. I'm sure Gotham area hospitals have treated plenty of Jet fan whiplash over the past few winters. From "HE'S THE MAN-GENIUS! THIS IS THE GREATEST HIRE IN THE HISTORY OF ORGANIZED SPORTS! to "I HATE HIM! HE'S A MORON! WHAT AN ARROGANT BLOWHARD!" And who could forget Broadway Jett Favre's transformation from Savior to Stinker. But its all in the past now and a brand new day has begun in Jet land. A loud, brash, cocky, polarizing, and dangerously handsome day (which of those adjectives are meant for Mark Sanchez and which are for Rex Ryan...I'll let you decide). The Jets have their coach and quarterback and in my opinion, made the best choices in both cases. Love him or hate him, the players have taken to Rex Ryan and the man is a defensive genius. You may not love Mark Sanchez, but he has won over the coaches, the locker room, and suddenly confused 40 year male Jet fans. The Jets also have a potentially potent rushing game (provided everyone is happy) with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. While Jones was the NFL's leading rusher last year, look for both Washington and Greene to get serious reps as the Jets feel like that twosome is the future of the ground game. The O-Line is very good and while the defense is far from complete, they do have a strong foundation for Ryan to build around. The two true keys here are the guys everyone is falling all over themselves for...Ryan and Sanchez. Did all the teams (Baltimore included) that passed on Ryan as their head coach see something the Jets did not or is he going to find the same measure of success as he did as a coordinator? Will the highly touted rook be able to handle the pressures of the quarterback position, the New York media, and playing the quarterback position in front of the New York media? He'll have to do it without a ton of downfield playmakers...after Jerricho Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller is the steadiest target Sanchez will have. A rough beginning of the schedule equals a worse record than last season but much more confidence in what's to come.
PREDICTION: 7-9
3. BUFFALO BILLS:
Someone please explain to me how Dick Jauron still has this job. Seriously. The man has gone 7-9 for the past 3,400 seasons. When did that become OK? The man started off 5-1 and proceeded to finish with a losing record. You know how many times that's happened in the history of the 16 game schedule. 3. In 31 years. 90% of people who voted in a poll for a Buffalo newspaper wanted him fired. Someone needs to put this guy away for elder abuse, because he is taking advantage of Ralph Wilson. Nevertheless, Tricky Dick's Bills added America's Sweetheart Terrell Owens in the off-season if for no other reason to make them relevant outside of Chris Berman's warped mind. Despite the addition of Mr. VH1, nothing about this Bills team stands out. Trent Edwards? He's ok. Their offensive line? Lost Jason Peters, but the unit isn't tragic. Marshawn Lynch is a dynamic and powerful back, but he's going to miss the first four games of the year, including road games at New England and Miami and the Saints coming into Orchid Park. Their pass rush was putrid last year and I'm not sure Aaron Maybin is the antidote. However...year in and year out, their return game is among the best in football! If that doesn't sum it up, nothing does.
PREDICTION: 7-9 (Breaking News: The sky is blue)
4. MIAMI DOLPHINS:
There seems to be a strong backlash against surprise playoff teams from last year. Pundits are clipping the wings of the Cards and Falcons and throwing those plastic six pack holders at the Phins. Count me among the litterbugs. Chad Pennington has never had back to back healthy, productive seasons and this team goes as Big Red goes. His incredible resurgence helped the Dolphins produce a historic turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5. It also masked the fact that as a whole, this team is staggeringly average. I think even the Tuna was surprised by the team's success. It seemed Pennington was added to keep the radio helmet warm until Chad Henne was ready to take over (also, is this the first QB combination both named Chad in NFL history. Maybe that's why I don't like this team.) Henne's ascension to the starting position may still take place on schedule. A much tougher slate plus the fact that the entire NFL will not look past them again equals a letdown for Phins fans. There are some nice pieces here...Ronnie Brown is a uniquely talented running back, Jake Long is a great offensive line anchor, and defensive end Kendall Langford opened some eyes last year. Other than that, I'm not sold on Miami's ability to be a serious AFC contender, East Division or otherwise.
PREDICTION: 6-10
AFC NORTH:
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
I love the way this team goes about their business. Coaching stability, good drafts, strong defense. The Steelers have long been a pinnacle of the NFL and to me, deserve the mantle of "America's Team." That being said, they are the reason for a serious epidemic in the NFL...Unproven Coachitis. When they brought Mike Tomlin in as the 3rd head coach in franchise history, there were more arched eyebrows than a Dwayne Johnson impersonation contest. However, his tremendous success with the job has encouraged the rest of the league to take a flyer on coaches who are younger than many of their players. Check out Number 4 in Joe Giglio's excellent preview blog for a further investigation. What can be expected on the NFL's version on Patient Zero this year? Having watched them play one game, I'll steal a phrase I've heard from many a young lass in my life time...I like them, but I don't LIKE LIKE them. Big Ben is a fantastic QB, statistics aside. Proven winner, tremendous leader, good arm, good feet, good vision etc. The defense is always among the league's best and this year will be no different. However, they are sorely lacking in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball and lack elite playmakers at the RB position. While their schedule is markedly easier than last season, there are a few toughies. That said, I expect Roethlisberger to improve statistically this year as Bruce Arians realizes he flat out can't dial up run plays in big spots and the defense to do enough to keep them among the league's elite.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. BALTIMORE RAVENS:
A real shocker to everyone outside of The Charm City last season, Beltway Joe and the Ravens won't be sneaking up on anyone more. But chances are they won't have to. We all know about the defense. Haloti Ngata is about to become the world's most difficult to pronounce household name, they have two Hall of Fame caliber players wreaking havoc (Ed Reed and Ray Lewis) and also feature tons of other frightening forces on the defensive side of the ball. Provided Greg Mattison uses his personnel as similar to Rex Ryan as he can, this defense will be yield less points that an average O's pitcher in a lot of games. (RIM SHOT) Nothing about their offense will change from last season...Willis McGahee's days as a feature back are gone, but Ray Rice's are just beginning. They also have punishing chubster LeRon McClain to add another dimension to their backfield. I also love the addition of center Matt Birk to this team. The average age of the O-Line (Birk aside) is 23.5 years old, so his presence will be helpful both on and off the field. If the running game does have success, Flacco can again enjoy another season of "game managing". That's kind of become a dirty word in some circles, but we've seen Super Bowls won with such behavior...just ask the Dilf. Truthfully, Flacco really reminds me of his division rival Big Ben. Similar players with similarly run orginazations. If Flacco can also find that late game magic like his fellow AFC Northerner, he will also have similar finger jewelry very very soon.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. CINCINNATI BENGALS:
After discussing two of the classiest, best run orginizations in football...its unfortunately time to talk about the opposite....I'M JUST KIDDING BENGALS FANS! You know I love ya! Actually, you don't know that. You can't know that. Because I didn't sell out my comment box, this blog is blacked out in your area. Sorry guys. But seriously folks, this Bengals team has got to be on of the colossal disappointments of the past 5 years. When they captured the AFC North title in 2005, folks in Ohio were ready for a return to the glory of the Ickey Woods/Boomer Esiason/Stanley Wilson/Stanley Wilson's bathtub days. Unfortunately, it all went to hell when Carson Palmer tore up his knee. Marvin Lewis returns AGAIN and is keeping his entire staff in tact, including an offensive coordinator whose unit ranked last in total offense. That number will change with the (hopeful) return of Carson Palmer and the expanded role of Cedric Benson. However, the receiving corp took a serious blow with T.J. Houshmandzadeh's depature to Seattle. Chad Ochenta y Cinco seems more focused on Tweeting than he is preparing for Sundays and their number two receiver once fired a gun while wearing his own jersey outside a club. Bengals football ladies and gents! The offensive line is also a big time sore spot, especially with the injury to first round pick Andre Smith. The defensive line is a consistent disappointment and the secondary isn't much better. I do like their young LB corps...Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga are certainly building blocks and nice compliments to Dhani Jones and his snappy bowties. Their offense is going to be pretty good, but their defense will struggle.
EDIT: Its been brought to my attention that I failed to mention the addition of Lavernaues Coles. This is a large oversight. He adds veteran leadership. He adds a strong possession recievers element. He also adds no wins. Sorry Mr. Hudson.
PREDICTION:
6-10
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS:
I have only informed my family of my in-depth preview of the Cleveland Browns. I feel it gives me a competitive edge over other bloggers. Sorry, Browns fans...but I'm just worlds smarter and more talented then every other blogger in the world, despite the fact that I have nothing to show for it except an entire city that despises me.
PREDICTION:
4-12
AFC SOUTH
1.INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Plenty of doom and gloom surrounds this club. There's questions on the offensive line, questions on the defensive side of the ball, and the great Tony Dungy has rode off into the sunset. All of these factors have lead plenty of people to get way down on the Colts. They all seem to be forgetting one factor...one of the greatest quarterbacks (and five heads) of all time...Peyton Manning. They also seem to have forgotten that he has a better offense than he did last year (a 12-4 MVP season). Proud RBC grad Donnie Brown is going to be a marvelous addition to this team, helping to spell the lackluster Joseph Addai in the run game. While Marvin Harrison won't be around, their wide recievers may very well be better than they were last year too. Reggie Wayne is an elite level talent, Anthony Gonzalez is going to have a break out season, Dallas Clark is so underrated he's borderline overrated and I'm expecting a solid contribution from 4th rounder Austin Collie in the slot. Their O-Line will be much improved with both Jeff Saturday and Ryan Lilja back full-time. LT Tony Ugoh has another year under his belt and his consistency will improve. I also think they are underrated defensively...If Marlin Jackson returns to form, he and Kelvin Hayden are a great cornerback pair, Bob Sanders might be the best defensive player in the NFL when he's on the field, and while their defensive line and linebackers are shaky, I think the added beef and return of Gary Brackett respectively will help them very much. If Jimbo Caldwell just uses the ssme blueprint as Tony Dungy, we could very well be talking about the Colts becoming the second team to win a Super Bowl in Year 1 of the Post-Dungy era.
PREDICTION: 12-4
2. HOUSTON TEXANS
The sexiest of sexy picks. Everyone and their brother is all over these team...except my brother. But I guess that's beside the point. This team is LOADED talent wise. Defensively, they are the most underrated unit in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are All-Pro talents. When Brian Cushing gets healthy, he looks to be a serious impact player and many within the organization believe Amobi Okoye will have a bounce back year. Offensively, they are super powered. Matt Schaub is a potential 4,000 yard passer and he has quite the crew to throw to...the 2nd best WR in game Andre Johnson, the suddenly emergent Kevin Walter and solid TE Owen Daniels. Their much maligned offensive line is finally beginning to improve...Coach Gary Kubiak was able to start the same five offensive linemen for an entire season for the first time in franchise history and with another year of the zone blocking system, the unit should improve their run blocking for dynamic sophomore playmaker Steve Slaton. They are not without their flaws however...the secondary is shaky at best and while Schaub is a potential 4,000 yard passer, he needs to keep his rear end on the field, especially because their backup this year is Ol' Back of the End Zone Danny Orlovsky. If Schaub can actually play in 16 games this year (I'll even take 15 Matty), this is a playoff team.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. TENNESSEE TITANS:
Loved 'em last year. Not so much this year. Even though they kept Pittsburgh bottled up, we saw the impact of Albert Haynesworth's absence on Thursday night. Their pass rush was non existent in big spots even against Pittsburgh's shoddy o-line. They still are fairly solid defensively with key contributors with Hall of Famer Keith Bulluck heading up a linebacking group that also includes Stephen Tulloch and David Thorton. Their secondary is excellent...Cortland Finnegan is always a threat to make a big play and few teams have a safety combination as good as Chris Hope and Michael Griffin. Depth is an issue however...there is no experience outside of the starting trio in the linebacker corps, and their sub-package players are shaky at best. Offensively, their fate lies in the hands of Kerry Collins...The Titans gave the veteran QB a two year extension after his conservative style boded well for the former Oilers. His backup, Vince Young, is still one of the most intriguing players in the NFL. Will he ever find his Longhorn form? Will he be passed on the depth chart by Patrick Ramsey? Will he have anymore midnight, loaded gun drives or should I say "trips to his buddy's house for wings?" Who knows? Barring an injury, Kerry is their guy this year. If first round pick Kenny Britt can develop, the Titans have their first go-to guy in a long, long time. Their run game is quite potent, with speedster/star of District 9 and Land-Whale Lendale (my pick for a breakout year...big guy wants a contract...but word of warning to the team that signs him...Break out the elastic waists and lock up the China Buffets.) I just don't see Kerry Collins being able to replicate last season's essentially mistake free season despite a great offensive line. Add that to a non-existant pass rush and a bust warning on the running game (Potential sophomore slump for Johnson and well...Lendale White's bust.)
PREDICTON: 8-8
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
We've come to the bastard child on the National Football League. No one wants to go to their games. No one wants to play for their team. Honestly, who thought this was a good idea? Jacksonville was granted a franchise before Baltimore, St. Louis, Memphis, Los Angeles, Toronto, London, Mexico City, Toms River, and Venus. All of these would be more viable markets. Nevertheless, they exist and I am forced to write about them. Offensively...well they're the Jaguars. I'm not feeling the same Mo-Jo mojo as many others, but the little fella is certainly a weapon on the offensive side of the ball. I worry how he will hold up with a full workload. Fragile Fred Taylor has packed his bags and gone to a relevant team, so unless 7th rounder Rashad Jennings can step up, Jones-Drew will be hanging a ton of carries on his small frame. It will be a heavy burden for him...the offensive line is either A. inexperienced (Eugene Monore, Eben Britton), old (Tra Thomas), or plain mediocre (Mo Williams) and the passing game will continue to be nonexistent. The team made a mistake giving David Garrard the contract they did and his giant step backwards last season is definitely starching the collars of the 16 Jaguars fans left. They attempted to bolster the WR corps, but Torry Holt is past his prime and the rookies (Mike Thomas, Jarret Dillard, Tiquan Underwood) might not be ready for prime time. The have built a team in the image of the Steelers and the Ravens...except for the fact that their defense stinks. John Henderson struggled without Marcus Stroud by his side and the young defense ends they invested so much into (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves) looked like they flat out can't hack it. The linebackers are in a state of flux and besides Rashean Manthis there isn't anyone who stands out in the secondary. The pressure on Jack Del Rio is heavier than my co-host's man crush on him. Both will be over this time next year. When he's unemployed.
PREDICTION: 5-11
AFC WEST
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The only team worth a damn in this division. San Diego had an abysmal beginning of the season but behind Philip Rivers and the humiliating collapse on the Denver Broncos, the Super Chargers made a great playoff run. They also are anticipating the return of Shawne "Lights Out" "Three's Company Four's Better" Merriman. His return will not only mean a pass rushing force in Ron Rivera's defense but also the elevation of every one around him. Love him, hate him, strip and threaten to sleep with one of his entourage, Merriman is a big time player and if his knee is healthy, watch out. Their offense is also incredibly potent. Ol' Norv has one of the best offensive minds in the game and he's working with one of the best quarterbacks in Rivers. I sense a resurgence on the ground from this team. If LaDaninan Tomlinson can find the gas for one more good year, it will not only help the team tremendously, it will also allow Darren Sproles to return to his waterbugging ways. Like MJD in Jacksonville, Sproles is not an every down type of back, but can be a weapon if used correctly. Vincent Jackson has his toe in the pool of greatness, but needs to have a bust out season. Antonio Gates is fully healthy and playing for a contract. In short, this offense is good. Its damn good. Their biggest issue is the secondary...they posted the 31st ranked passing defense in the NFL. If Antonio Cromartie's struggles last season were really due to an injury, his health will certain help matters. With Rivera at the helm, this defense will find a way to accenuate its strengths and hide its weaknesses. The same can be said for the offense under Turner. For all the hell I give him, Norvie's won 2 AFC West crowns and gone 3-2 in the playoffs during his tenure. Time to get over the hump, Norval.
PREDICTION: 14-2
2. OAKLAND RAIDERS
I can't believe I just typed that. Is that a testament to the weakness of the division or the Raiders being actually competitive. You decide. I think its a little bit of both. I think the Raiders running game is going to be pretty good. Darren McFadden is the real deal, and with Michael Bush and Justin Fargas to spell him, he might be this year's Michael Turner. JaMarcus Russell continues to be a big enigma. He's got a hell of an arm, but can he develop into a solid, consistent QB? He has speedy options in Johnnie Lee Higgens and rookie reach Darius Heyward Bey and a TE with good hands and size in Zach Miller. In the trenches, this team has become surprisingly apt over the years. Robert Gallery, long labeled a bust, is emerging as one of the top interior linemen in the game. The rest of the line is not going to make anyone forget about the Giants, but will hold their own enough to open slight holes for the lightning quick McFadden and Fargas. And what of the defense? Frankly...its not very good. Talented running backs carve them up, hence the trade for Richard Seymour. The Raiders view him as the catalyst for a drastic improvement for the ground defense. Unfortunately, no one told Big Rich that and he still has not reported to Oak Town. Seymour or otherwise, this team will struggle to stop the run. The linebackers don't provide much help with the run game either...Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard are very talented in pass coverage, but aren't exactly top of the line run blitzers. They also possess the very best corner in the NFL and the man I will name my first son after (Nnamdi Asomugha Krenek has a lovely ring). In fact, The As-Man is so talented, no one even throws his way. That puts a lot of pressure on the corner 2 position, which was filled surprisingly well by Chris Johnson. They have a big time question mark at safety the man who made Mel Kiper Jr. cry in April, Mike Mitchell. He's a big hitter, but is ready for the speed of the NFL? That remains to be seen. A man who clearly has adjusted to the speed of the NFl is head coach Tom Cable. Sometimes he's more uncomfortable to watch then Jim Carrey's version, but The Cable Guy certainly has a passion (and a vicious right hook.) The team has more question marks then the Riddler's jumpsuit (We're just a "Truman Show" reference away from the triple threat.) but there is enough talent to make Raider fans believe...even with the omnipresent Al Davis looming large. He's Oakland's very own version of Christof (Bingo!)
PREDICTION: 7-9
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Oh boy, now its getting fun. The basement of this division is more frightening than John Wayne Gacy's. The Chiefs gave the heave-ho to Herm and welcomed in Todd Haley after a horrific 2008 season. I must admit I like the direction of this club. They brought in New England GM Scott Pioli to be the architect of what they hope to be a competitive team. If wishes were fishes, the whole world would be an ocean, Chief fans. Honestly though, I think Pioli is going to build them into a legit team in the next few years. Pioli added three veterans to the linebacker squad in Mike Vrabel, Monty Beisel and Zach Thomas, in hope that they would not only produce on the field, but also motivate the youngsters. While there are some young pieces to get pumped about (Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson) by and large this defense is not going to be very good. Offensively, they are intriguing. Haley was the offense coordinator for a team that was able to make up for a swiss cheese defense for a Super Bowl run. He also had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. I do like his agressiveness as a play caller and think he was the right choice for KC. They have to be patient though. Patient with Matt Cassel, whose 11-5 record as a starter may be a product of the Foxboro Factory. Patient with Dwayne Bowe, who is a star in the making but may suffer some growing pains. Patient with Haley, whose firey shtick wears thin on some veterans. Patient with Pioli/the defense, as he tries to get the right guys for the right system. And patient with me, for writing sentences about them with out subjects.
PREDICTION: 4-12
4. DENVER BRONCOS
Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. What can be said about this team? Josh McDaniels is the new egomaniacal branch on the Belichick tree. Kyle Orton is not the answer at QB. The defense stinks. Brandon Marshall would rather practice punting than practice WR. As much as I love Knowshawn Moreno, he's not going to have much to work with. Take everything I wrote about Kansas City and reverse it. Because I have not liked ONE MOVE this team made this offseason. From hiring McDaniels, to trading Cutler, to trading this year's first round pick to Seattle, and now potentially giving an extension to the next headliner on VH1's Divas Live! God bless you Champ Bailey. You deserve better then this.
PREDICTION:
3-13
AFC PLAYOFFS:
3. Indianapolis OVER 6. Houston
5. Baltimore OVER 4. Pittsburgh
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
1. San Diego OVER 5. Baltimore
2. New England OVER 3. Indianapolis
AFC TITLE GAME:
2. New England OVER 1. San Diego
AFC CHAMPION:
New England
I honestly wrote this thing out with every single different team, save for Houston, winning the AFC. Its going to boil down to matchups. Ultimately, New England's passing offense will be too much for both Indianapolis and San Diego to handle. Expect both of those games to be shootouts. But if New England were to draw, say Baltimore...the Ravens might be able to pull off the upset. I'm just so confused and near tears over who to pick in the AFC. I need a break.
Keep your eyes peeled for the NFC preview, which will be out tonight. Or don't. Whatever man. Its your call.
That's right folks...announcers have referred to Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger as if he was an old drinking buddy or the titular rat of Michael Jackson ballad. "BEN" has taken the field...its football time.
Before we get into the full scale preview (and believe me...WE WILL.), here's a few quick hits on tonight's game.
-Roethlisberger is the shiftiest fat guy since Ernst Blofeld.
-I can't decide what's worse...The run game of the Steelers or the pass defense of the Titans.
-Hines Ward can't have in-between emotions. He's either smiling or crying. There is no middle ground with this man.
-Pittsburgh offensive line is going to be an issue. I, of course, said the same thing last year. So what do I know.
-The final score of the first NFL game of Joe and I's professional broadcasting career? 13 10. Coincidence? I think not.
With five quick hits, I have given you folks more from this game than Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall gave their fantasy owners combined, so I feel I've done my due diligence. Now its time to give you what you came for. I sense that look in your eye. You pretend you want to read about football. But you don't. You want a smoldering picture of the sexiest signal caller in New York football history. Don't lie. Its what you want. What you crave. What you desire. What you need. And who I am to deny you that?
My. Oh. My.
Goodness gracious. I am comfortably heterosexual but there is no denying the magnetism in that photo. But collect yourself, clean the fog off your computer screen and relax. Its business time.
MIKE KRENEK'S 2009 NFL PREVIEW PART I (The AFC Edition)
aka Where to Turn When You've Read ESPN, SI, Fox Sports and The Shore Sports Scoop and decided they just weren't inaccurate enough.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
I know about Brady's knee injury. I know about the losses of key defensive components. I know they have running backs who are far more fun to talk about then to actually watch (Try saying BenJarvusGreenEllis three times fast). But I also know that Bill Belichick is on a mission. And so is Mr. Brady. When those two guys want something, they usually get it. I'd question any other team's ability to bounce back from such a big shift on the defensive side of the ball, but I respect the Man behind the Curtain far too much. This team is going to score a zillion points and while their defense will be nowhere near the league's best, the young guard (Jerrod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather and rookies Patrick Chung and Ron Brace) will blend well with the older guys (Ty Warren, Adalius Thomas, Shawn Springs) and do just enough on the defensive side of the ball. A big key to their defensive success however, will be Vince Wilfork. With Richard Seymour out of the picture, the big fella has to be the glue that keeps this thing together. Couple that with the fact that he's due for a big money contract in 2010, and you've got one hungry 300 pounder. Although I imagine a man of his proportions is oft hungry.
PREDICTION: 13-3
2. NEW YORK JETS:
Ah the Jets. Its been quite the rocky ride over the last few seasons for fans of Gang Green. I'm sure Gotham area hospitals have treated plenty of Jet fan whiplash over the past few winters. From "HE'S THE MAN-GENIUS! THIS IS THE GREATEST HIRE IN THE HISTORY OF ORGANIZED SPORTS! to "I HATE HIM! HE'S A MORON! WHAT AN ARROGANT BLOWHARD!" And who could forget Broadway Jett Favre's transformation from Savior to Stinker. But its all in the past now and a brand new day has begun in Jet land. A loud, brash, cocky, polarizing, and dangerously handsome day (which of those adjectives are meant for Mark Sanchez and which are for Rex Ryan...I'll let you decide). The Jets have their coach and quarterback and in my opinion, made the best choices in both cases. Love him or hate him, the players have taken to Rex Ryan and the man is a defensive genius. You may not love Mark Sanchez, but he has won over the coaches, the locker room, and suddenly confused 40 year male Jet fans. The Jets also have a potentially potent rushing game (provided everyone is happy) with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. While Jones was the NFL's leading rusher last year, look for both Washington and Greene to get serious reps as the Jets feel like that twosome is the future of the ground game. The O-Line is very good and while the defense is far from complete, they do have a strong foundation for Ryan to build around. The two true keys here are the guys everyone is falling all over themselves for...Ryan and Sanchez. Did all the teams (Baltimore included) that passed on Ryan as their head coach see something the Jets did not or is he going to find the same measure of success as he did as a coordinator? Will the highly touted rook be able to handle the pressures of the quarterback position, the New York media, and playing the quarterback position in front of the New York media? He'll have to do it without a ton of downfield playmakers...after Jerricho Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller is the steadiest target Sanchez will have. A rough beginning of the schedule equals a worse record than last season but much more confidence in what's to come.
PREDICTION: 7-9
3. BUFFALO BILLS:
Someone please explain to me how Dick Jauron still has this job. Seriously. The man has gone 7-9 for the past 3,400 seasons. When did that become OK? The man started off 5-1 and proceeded to finish with a losing record. You know how many times that's happened in the history of the 16 game schedule. 3. In 31 years. 90% of people who voted in a poll for a Buffalo newspaper wanted him fired. Someone needs to put this guy away for elder abuse, because he is taking advantage of Ralph Wilson. Nevertheless, Tricky Dick's Bills added America's Sweetheart Terrell Owens in the off-season if for no other reason to make them relevant outside of Chris Berman's warped mind. Despite the addition of Mr. VH1, nothing about this Bills team stands out. Trent Edwards? He's ok. Their offensive line? Lost Jason Peters, but the unit isn't tragic. Marshawn Lynch is a dynamic and powerful back, but he's going to miss the first four games of the year, including road games at New England and Miami and the Saints coming into Orchid Park. Their pass rush was putrid last year and I'm not sure Aaron Maybin is the antidote. However...year in and year out, their return game is among the best in football! If that doesn't sum it up, nothing does.
PREDICTION: 7-9 (Breaking News: The sky is blue)
4. MIAMI DOLPHINS:
There seems to be a strong backlash against surprise playoff teams from last year. Pundits are clipping the wings of the Cards and Falcons and throwing those plastic six pack holders at the Phins. Count me among the litterbugs. Chad Pennington has never had back to back healthy, productive seasons and this team goes as Big Red goes. His incredible resurgence helped the Dolphins produce a historic turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5. It also masked the fact that as a whole, this team is staggeringly average. I think even the Tuna was surprised by the team's success. It seemed Pennington was added to keep the radio helmet warm until Chad Henne was ready to take over (also, is this the first QB combination both named Chad in NFL history. Maybe that's why I don't like this team.) Henne's ascension to the starting position may still take place on schedule. A much tougher slate plus the fact that the entire NFL will not look past them again equals a letdown for Phins fans. There are some nice pieces here...Ronnie Brown is a uniquely talented running back, Jake Long is a great offensive line anchor, and defensive end Kendall Langford opened some eyes last year. Other than that, I'm not sold on Miami's ability to be a serious AFC contender, East Division or otherwise.
PREDICTION: 6-10
AFC NORTH:
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
I love the way this team goes about their business. Coaching stability, good drafts, strong defense. The Steelers have long been a pinnacle of the NFL and to me, deserve the mantle of "America's Team." That being said, they are the reason for a serious epidemic in the NFL...Unproven Coachitis. When they brought Mike Tomlin in as the 3rd head coach in franchise history, there were more arched eyebrows than a Dwayne Johnson impersonation contest. However, his tremendous success with the job has encouraged the rest of the league to take a flyer on coaches who are younger than many of their players. Check out Number 4 in Joe Giglio's excellent preview blog for a further investigation. What can be expected on the NFL's version on Patient Zero this year? Having watched them play one game, I'll steal a phrase I've heard from many a young lass in my life time...I like them, but I don't LIKE LIKE them. Big Ben is a fantastic QB, statistics aside. Proven winner, tremendous leader, good arm, good feet, good vision etc. The defense is always among the league's best and this year will be no different. However, they are sorely lacking in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball and lack elite playmakers at the RB position. While their schedule is markedly easier than last season, there are a few toughies. That said, I expect Roethlisberger to improve statistically this year as Bruce Arians realizes he flat out can't dial up run plays in big spots and the defense to do enough to keep them among the league's elite.
PREDICTION: 11-5
2. BALTIMORE RAVENS:
A real shocker to everyone outside of The Charm City last season, Beltway Joe and the Ravens won't be sneaking up on anyone more. But chances are they won't have to. We all know about the defense. Haloti Ngata is about to become the world's most difficult to pronounce household name, they have two Hall of Fame caliber players wreaking havoc (Ed Reed and Ray Lewis) and also feature tons of other frightening forces on the defensive side of the ball. Provided Greg Mattison uses his personnel as similar to Rex Ryan as he can, this defense will be yield less points that an average O's pitcher in a lot of games. (RIM SHOT) Nothing about their offense will change from last season...Willis McGahee's days as a feature back are gone, but Ray Rice's are just beginning. They also have punishing chubster LeRon McClain to add another dimension to their backfield. I also love the addition of center Matt Birk to this team. The average age of the O-Line (Birk aside) is 23.5 years old, so his presence will be helpful both on and off the field. If the running game does have success, Flacco can again enjoy another season of "game managing". That's kind of become a dirty word in some circles, but we've seen Super Bowls won with such behavior...just ask the Dilf. Truthfully, Flacco really reminds me of his division rival Big Ben. Similar players with similarly run orginazations. If Flacco can also find that late game magic like his fellow AFC Northerner, he will also have similar finger jewelry very very soon.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. CINCINNATI BENGALS:
After discussing two of the classiest, best run orginizations in football...its unfortunately time to talk about the opposite....I'M JUST KIDDING BENGALS FANS! You know I love ya! Actually, you don't know that. You can't know that. Because I didn't sell out my comment box, this blog is blacked out in your area. Sorry guys. But seriously folks, this Bengals team has got to be on of the colossal disappointments of the past 5 years. When they captured the AFC North title in 2005, folks in Ohio were ready for a return to the glory of the Ickey Woods/Boomer Esiason/Stanley Wilson/Stanley Wilson's bathtub days. Unfortunately, it all went to hell when Carson Palmer tore up his knee. Marvin Lewis returns AGAIN and is keeping his entire staff in tact, including an offensive coordinator whose unit ranked last in total offense. That number will change with the (hopeful) return of Carson Palmer and the expanded role of Cedric Benson. However, the receiving corp took a serious blow with T.J. Houshmandzadeh's depature to Seattle. Chad Ochenta y Cinco seems more focused on Tweeting than he is preparing for Sundays and their number two receiver once fired a gun while wearing his own jersey outside a club. Bengals football ladies and gents! The offensive line is also a big time sore spot, especially with the injury to first round pick Andre Smith. The defensive line is a consistent disappointment and the secondary isn't much better. I do like their young LB corps...Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga are certainly building blocks and nice compliments to Dhani Jones and his snappy bowties. Their offense is going to be pretty good, but their defense will struggle.
EDIT: Its been brought to my attention that I failed to mention the addition of Lavernaues Coles. This is a large oversight. He adds veteran leadership. He adds a strong possession recievers element. He also adds no wins. Sorry Mr. Hudson.
PREDICTION:
6-10
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS:
I have only informed my family of my in-depth preview of the Cleveland Browns. I feel it gives me a competitive edge over other bloggers. Sorry, Browns fans...but I'm just worlds smarter and more talented then every other blogger in the world, despite the fact that I have nothing to show for it except an entire city that despises me.
PREDICTION:
4-12
AFC SOUTH
1.INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Plenty of doom and gloom surrounds this club. There's questions on the offensive line, questions on the defensive side of the ball, and the great Tony Dungy has rode off into the sunset. All of these factors have lead plenty of people to get way down on the Colts. They all seem to be forgetting one factor...one of the greatest quarterbacks (and five heads) of all time...Peyton Manning. They also seem to have forgotten that he has a better offense than he did last year (a 12-4 MVP season). Proud RBC grad Donnie Brown is going to be a marvelous addition to this team, helping to spell the lackluster Joseph Addai in the run game. While Marvin Harrison won't be around, their wide recievers may very well be better than they were last year too. Reggie Wayne is an elite level talent, Anthony Gonzalez is going to have a break out season, Dallas Clark is so underrated he's borderline overrated and I'm expecting a solid contribution from 4th rounder Austin Collie in the slot. Their O-Line will be much improved with both Jeff Saturday and Ryan Lilja back full-time. LT Tony Ugoh has another year under his belt and his consistency will improve. I also think they are underrated defensively...If Marlin Jackson returns to form, he and Kelvin Hayden are a great cornerback pair, Bob Sanders might be the best defensive player in the NFL when he's on the field, and while their defensive line and linebackers are shaky, I think the added beef and return of Gary Brackett respectively will help them very much. If Jimbo Caldwell just uses the ssme blueprint as Tony Dungy, we could very well be talking about the Colts becoming the second team to win a Super Bowl in Year 1 of the Post-Dungy era.
PREDICTION: 12-4
2. HOUSTON TEXANS
The sexiest of sexy picks. Everyone and their brother is all over these team...except my brother. But I guess that's beside the point. This team is LOADED talent wise. Defensively, they are the most underrated unit in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are All-Pro talents. When Brian Cushing gets healthy, he looks to be a serious impact player and many within the organization believe Amobi Okoye will have a bounce back year. Offensively, they are super powered. Matt Schaub is a potential 4,000 yard passer and he has quite the crew to throw to...the 2nd best WR in game Andre Johnson, the suddenly emergent Kevin Walter and solid TE Owen Daniels. Their much maligned offensive line is finally beginning to improve...Coach Gary Kubiak was able to start the same five offensive linemen for an entire season for the first time in franchise history and with another year of the zone blocking system, the unit should improve their run blocking for dynamic sophomore playmaker Steve Slaton. They are not without their flaws however...the secondary is shaky at best and while Schaub is a potential 4,000 yard passer, he needs to keep his rear end on the field, especially because their backup this year is Ol' Back of the End Zone Danny Orlovsky. If Schaub can actually play in 16 games this year (I'll even take 15 Matty), this is a playoff team.
PREDICTION: 10-6
3. TENNESSEE TITANS:
Loved 'em last year. Not so much this year. Even though they kept Pittsburgh bottled up, we saw the impact of Albert Haynesworth's absence on Thursday night. Their pass rush was non existent in big spots even against Pittsburgh's shoddy o-line. They still are fairly solid defensively with key contributors with Hall of Famer Keith Bulluck heading up a linebacking group that also includes Stephen Tulloch and David Thorton. Their secondary is excellent...Cortland Finnegan is always a threat to make a big play and few teams have a safety combination as good as Chris Hope and Michael Griffin. Depth is an issue however...there is no experience outside of the starting trio in the linebacker corps, and their sub-package players are shaky at best. Offensively, their fate lies in the hands of Kerry Collins...The Titans gave the veteran QB a two year extension after his conservative style boded well for the former Oilers. His backup, Vince Young, is still one of the most intriguing players in the NFL. Will he ever find his Longhorn form? Will he be passed on the depth chart by Patrick Ramsey? Will he have anymore midnight, loaded gun drives or should I say "trips to his buddy's house for wings?" Who knows? Barring an injury, Kerry is their guy this year. If first round pick Kenny Britt can develop, the Titans have their first go-to guy in a long, long time. Their run game is quite potent, with speedster/star of District 9 and Land-Whale Lendale (my pick for a breakout year...big guy wants a contract...but word of warning to the team that signs him...Break out the elastic waists and lock up the China Buffets.) I just don't see Kerry Collins being able to replicate last season's essentially mistake free season despite a great offensive line. Add that to a non-existant pass rush and a bust warning on the running game (Potential sophomore slump for Johnson and well...Lendale White's bust.)
PREDICTON: 8-8
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
We've come to the bastard child on the National Football League. No one wants to go to their games. No one wants to play for their team. Honestly, who thought this was a good idea? Jacksonville was granted a franchise before Baltimore, St. Louis, Memphis, Los Angeles, Toronto, London, Mexico City, Toms River, and Venus. All of these would be more viable markets. Nevertheless, they exist and I am forced to write about them. Offensively...well they're the Jaguars. I'm not feeling the same Mo-Jo mojo as many others, but the little fella is certainly a weapon on the offensive side of the ball. I worry how he will hold up with a full workload. Fragile Fred Taylor has packed his bags and gone to a relevant team, so unless 7th rounder Rashad Jennings can step up, Jones-Drew will be hanging a ton of carries on his small frame. It will be a heavy burden for him...the offensive line is either A. inexperienced (Eugene Monore, Eben Britton), old (Tra Thomas), or plain mediocre (Mo Williams) and the passing game will continue to be nonexistent. The team made a mistake giving David Garrard the contract they did and his giant step backwards last season is definitely starching the collars of the 16 Jaguars fans left. They attempted to bolster the WR corps, but Torry Holt is past his prime and the rookies (Mike Thomas, Jarret Dillard, Tiquan Underwood) might not be ready for prime time. The have built a team in the image of the Steelers and the Ravens...except for the fact that their defense stinks. John Henderson struggled without Marcus Stroud by his side and the young defense ends they invested so much into (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves) looked like they flat out can't hack it. The linebackers are in a state of flux and besides Rashean Manthis there isn't anyone who stands out in the secondary. The pressure on Jack Del Rio is heavier than my co-host's man crush on him. Both will be over this time next year. When he's unemployed.
PREDICTION: 5-11
AFC WEST
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The only team worth a damn in this division. San Diego had an abysmal beginning of the season but behind Philip Rivers and the humiliating collapse on the Denver Broncos, the Super Chargers made a great playoff run. They also are anticipating the return of Shawne "Lights Out" "Three's Company Four's Better" Merriman. His return will not only mean a pass rushing force in Ron Rivera's defense but also the elevation of every one around him. Love him, hate him, strip and threaten to sleep with one of his entourage, Merriman is a big time player and if his knee is healthy, watch out. Their offense is also incredibly potent. Ol' Norv has one of the best offensive minds in the game and he's working with one of the best quarterbacks in Rivers. I sense a resurgence on the ground from this team. If LaDaninan Tomlinson can find the gas for one more good year, it will not only help the team tremendously, it will also allow Darren Sproles to return to his waterbugging ways. Like MJD in Jacksonville, Sproles is not an every down type of back, but can be a weapon if used correctly. Vincent Jackson has his toe in the pool of greatness, but needs to have a bust out season. Antonio Gates is fully healthy and playing for a contract. In short, this offense is good. Its damn good. Their biggest issue is the secondary...they posted the 31st ranked passing defense in the NFL. If Antonio Cromartie's struggles last season were really due to an injury, his health will certain help matters. With Rivera at the helm, this defense will find a way to accenuate its strengths and hide its weaknesses. The same can be said for the offense under Turner. For all the hell I give him, Norvie's won 2 AFC West crowns and gone 3-2 in the playoffs during his tenure. Time to get over the hump, Norval.
PREDICTION: 14-2
2. OAKLAND RAIDERS
I can't believe I just typed that. Is that a testament to the weakness of the division or the Raiders being actually competitive. You decide. I think its a little bit of both. I think the Raiders running game is going to be pretty good. Darren McFadden is the real deal, and with Michael Bush and Justin Fargas to spell him, he might be this year's Michael Turner. JaMarcus Russell continues to be a big enigma. He's got a hell of an arm, but can he develop into a solid, consistent QB? He has speedy options in Johnnie Lee Higgens and rookie reach Darius Heyward Bey and a TE with good hands and size in Zach Miller. In the trenches, this team has become surprisingly apt over the years. Robert Gallery, long labeled a bust, is emerging as one of the top interior linemen in the game. The rest of the line is not going to make anyone forget about the Giants, but will hold their own enough to open slight holes for the lightning quick McFadden and Fargas. And what of the defense? Frankly...its not very good. Talented running backs carve them up, hence the trade for Richard Seymour. The Raiders view him as the catalyst for a drastic improvement for the ground defense. Unfortunately, no one told Big Rich that and he still has not reported to Oak Town. Seymour or otherwise, this team will struggle to stop the run. The linebackers don't provide much help with the run game either...Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard are very talented in pass coverage, but aren't exactly top of the line run blitzers. They also possess the very best corner in the NFL and the man I will name my first son after (Nnamdi Asomugha Krenek has a lovely ring). In fact, The As-Man is so talented, no one even throws his way. That puts a lot of pressure on the corner 2 position, which was filled surprisingly well by Chris Johnson. They have a big time question mark at safety the man who made Mel Kiper Jr. cry in April, Mike Mitchell. He's a big hitter, but is ready for the speed of the NFL? That remains to be seen. A man who clearly has adjusted to the speed of the NFl is head coach Tom Cable. Sometimes he's more uncomfortable to watch then Jim Carrey's version, but The Cable Guy certainly has a passion (and a vicious right hook.) The team has more question marks then the Riddler's jumpsuit (We're just a "Truman Show" reference away from the triple threat.) but there is enough talent to make Raider fans believe...even with the omnipresent Al Davis looming large. He's Oakland's very own version of Christof (Bingo!)
PREDICTION: 7-9
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Oh boy, now its getting fun. The basement of this division is more frightening than John Wayne Gacy's. The Chiefs gave the heave-ho to Herm and welcomed in Todd Haley after a horrific 2008 season. I must admit I like the direction of this club. They brought in New England GM Scott Pioli to be the architect of what they hope to be a competitive team. If wishes were fishes, the whole world would be an ocean, Chief fans. Honestly though, I think Pioli is going to build them into a legit team in the next few years. Pioli added three veterans to the linebacker squad in Mike Vrabel, Monty Beisel and Zach Thomas, in hope that they would not only produce on the field, but also motivate the youngsters. While there are some young pieces to get pumped about (Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson) by and large this defense is not going to be very good. Offensively, they are intriguing. Haley was the offense coordinator for a team that was able to make up for a swiss cheese defense for a Super Bowl run. He also had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. I do like his agressiveness as a play caller and think he was the right choice for KC. They have to be patient though. Patient with Matt Cassel, whose 11-5 record as a starter may be a product of the Foxboro Factory. Patient with Dwayne Bowe, who is a star in the making but may suffer some growing pains. Patient with Haley, whose firey shtick wears thin on some veterans. Patient with Pioli/the defense, as he tries to get the right guys for the right system. And patient with me, for writing sentences about them with out subjects.
PREDICTION: 4-12
4. DENVER BRONCOS
Yuck. Yuck. Yuck. What can be said about this team? Josh McDaniels is the new egomaniacal branch on the Belichick tree. Kyle Orton is not the answer at QB. The defense stinks. Brandon Marshall would rather practice punting than practice WR. As much as I love Knowshawn Moreno, he's not going to have much to work with. Take everything I wrote about Kansas City and reverse it. Because I have not liked ONE MOVE this team made this offseason. From hiring McDaniels, to trading Cutler, to trading this year's first round pick to Seattle, and now potentially giving an extension to the next headliner on VH1's Divas Live! God bless you Champ Bailey. You deserve better then this.
PREDICTION:
3-13
AFC PLAYOFFS:
3. Indianapolis OVER 6. Houston
5. Baltimore OVER 4. Pittsburgh
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
1. San Diego OVER 5. Baltimore
2. New England OVER 3. Indianapolis
AFC TITLE GAME:
2. New England OVER 1. San Diego
AFC CHAMPION:
New England
I honestly wrote this thing out with every single different team, save for Houston, winning the AFC. Its going to boil down to matchups. Ultimately, New England's passing offense will be too much for both Indianapolis and San Diego to handle. Expect both of those games to be shootouts. But if New England were to draw, say Baltimore...the Ravens might be able to pull off the upset. I'm just so confused and near tears over who to pick in the AFC. I need a break.
Keep your eyes peeled for the NFC preview, which will be out tonight. Or don't. Whatever man. Its your call.
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